Major trends that will spur humanitarian needs in 2025 and what they mean from a child protection perspective
Introduction
This week, The New Humanitarian published an in-depth article identifying the major trends that will drive humanitarian needs in 2025. The article outlines key factors expected to worsen living conditions for millions in crisis hotspots at a time when UN agencies and the world’s largest humanitarian organisations are scaling back their ambitions due to severe funding shortfalls. Drawing on interviews with researchers, aid workers, policymakers, and affected communities, the article presents a grim assessment of the global humanitarian landscape in the year ahead.
This blog analyses these trends through a child protection lens, focusing on how each issue impacts children and the systems designed to protect them. The blog is structured around the key trends identified in the article, such as economic austerity, protracted conflicts, and the erosion of asylum rights. Each section explains the humanitarian trend, highlights the child protection implications, and provides targeted recommendations for policymakers, donors, and practitioners.
Debt and taxes: a lopsided global financial order
According to The New Humanitarian, global public debt has reached a staggering $97 trillion, with public debt in developing countries growing twice as fast as in developed nations. Nearly 48 developing countries now spend more on debt interest than on education or health. This crisis is compounded by the estimated half a trillion dollars lost annually in unpaid taxes, including in countries facing humanitarian emergencies. Many governments are forced to make severe budget cuts to qualify for international loans, with services for vulnerable groups among the first to be affected.
From a child protection perspective, this fiscal crisis has dire consequences. Cuts to social spending weaken child protection systems, leaving children without access to critical services. For example, UNAIDS has warned that cuts in public spending have left HIV services chronically underfunded in some countries, increasing risks for orphaned and vulnerable children. Similarly, children in countries like the Maldives—where austerity measures may reduce food subsidies and single mothers' allowances—are likely to experience higher rates of neglect and malnutrition. Families struggling with economic hardship are more likely to turn to negative coping mechanisms, such as child labour or early marriage.
Lebanon's ongoing economic collapse, driven by unsustainable debt and austerity measures, is a stark example of how fiscal crises can weaken child protection systems. With public services strained and families pushed into poverty, children in Lebanon face heightened risks of exploitation, including child labour and school dropouts.
To protect children, debt relief and fiscal agreements must include social spending floors to safeguard essential child protection systems. Policymakers should advocate for child-sensitive debt restructuring plans, while donors should support financial safety nets and service continuity during fiscal adjustments. The UN system, through the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF), must position child protection as a central development priority and ensure that child protection concerns are consistently raised in relevant high-level policy discussions and negotiations at the country level.
Conflicts rage on as peacebuilding efforts flounder
Protracted conflicts continue to devastate lives across Sudan, Gaza, Yemen, Myanmar, and the Sahel. In Sudan, nearly a year of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has displaced millions, with no comprehensive peace agreement in sight. In Yemen, ceasefires have stalled, while in Myanmar, the junta continues to target civilians with airstrikes. Post-Cold War peace efforts that once ended wars have given way to fragmented and often ineffective ceasefire negotiations.
From a child protection perspective, children are among the most affected by protracted conflicts. Many experience family separation, recruitment by armed groups, sexual violence, and the loss of access to education. In Sudan, where humanitarian access is severely restricted, children face heightened risks of violence, malnutrition, and exploitation. According to UNICEF, children are disproportionately more likely than adults to be killed or maimed by explosive weapons. They lose the protection and care provided by family members and friends, are abducted from their homes, recruited by armed groups, and subjected to sexual violence. Their schools and hospitals are destroyed, cutting off essential services, while many are denied life-saving aid simply because of who they are or where they live.
“By almost every measure, 2024 was one of the worst years on record for children living in conflict zones in UNICEF’s history. More than one in six children globally now live in areas affected by conflict, forced to face unthinkable violations. Children do not start wars but they pay the highest price for them. ”
Effective child protection systems in humanitarian settings must focus on reunification services, safe spaces, and psychosocial support. Donors and policymakers should prioritise funding for conflict-sensitive child protection interventions and support localised peacebuilding initiatives through multi-year, flexible financing. This includes empowering child protection actors to integrate child participation into post-conflict recovery frameworks. The UN Security Council (UNSC) must intensify efforts to ensure the full implementation of the Children and Armed Conflict (CAAC) agenda, including scaling up the Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) to comprehensively document every violation and ensure that every victim and their family receives access to essential services and justice. Documenting only a smaple of violations in only selected conflicts is no longer sufficient—consistent, system-wide accountability is essential for lasting change.
The fracturing of the old order
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing geopolitical rivalries have weakened multilateral cooperation. The expansion of economic blocs like BRICS—an economic and political grouping originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which has now expanded to include countries such as Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—reflects the breakdown of traditional power structures. The formation of alliances such as the Alliance of Sahel States further illustrates this shift. Western influence has waned in some regions, with countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger exiting the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and forming their own defence pact.
From a child protection perspective, children in crisis settings depend on a functioning global system to enforce child rights and deliver humanitarian aid. As multilateralism fractures, some countries may deprioritise child protection commitments in favour of national security or political alliances. For example, shifting alliances in the Sahel have made it harder for international actors to address violations against children, such as recruitment into armed groups and trafficking.
Advocacy must focus on ensuring that child protection remains a priority in regional agreements by embedding child protection goals within peace and security frameworks, social protection policies, and development plans. Strengthening partnerships with local child protection actors and community-based organisations (CBOs) is essential for maintaining service continuity, as these groups provide critical frontline support when international efforts are limited. To achieve this, regional bodies such as the African Union, ASEAN, and the League of Arab States must establish dedicated child protection working groups that facilitate cross-border collaboration and resource sharing. Donors should support capacity-building initiatives for CBOs through multi-year, flexible funding to enhance service delivery and coordination. Additionally, mechanisms for regular monitoring and feedback must be created to ensure that regional agreements are implemented effectively and hold governments accountable for their child protection commitments.
Mass atrocity crimes continue unchecked
Despite international justice mechanisms, mass atrocities continue in conflict zones such as Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine. In Gaza, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes, but this has not deterred ongoing military operations. In Sudan, groups evolved from the Janjaweed militia are accused of atrocities, including the siege of El Fasher.
From a child protection perspective, children are often the silent victims of mass atrocities, facing death, displacement, and trauma. In Gaza, dozens of Palestinian adolescents working with UN agencies to deliver aid have been killed during intense airstrikes. According to UNICEF, at least 74 children have reportedly been killed in relentless violence in the Gaza Strip in just the first seven days of 2025.
“UNICEF appeals to all parties to the conflict to adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law, including by ceasing attacks on civilians, humanitarian workers, and civilian infrastructure; meeting civilians’ essential needs; and by facilitating rapid, safe, and unimpeded humanitarian access.”
Documenting violations against children and amplifying their voices in justice processes is essential for healing, accountability, and deterrence. Policymakers must strengthen coordination with international justice bodies, such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (SRSG-CAAC), to ensure that crimes against children are systematically documented and addressed. This includes enhancing the Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) and ensuring that its data is effectively used to advocate for justice and reparations.
Regional organisations like the African Union, the European Union, and the League of Arab States must support the creation of regional child protection tribunals to complement global justice processes and address mass atrocities that may not receive sufficient international attention. Donors should prioritise investments in survivor-centred transitional justice programmes, including psychosocial support, legal aid, and specialised services for children. These programmes should be integrated into truth commissions, reparations processes, and national recovery plans to ensure children’s voices are heard and their rights upheld.
Finally, to scale impact, the UN Security Council must strengthen its oversight role by enforcing accountability through targeted sanctions and supporting child-centred humanitarian corridors to ensure children and their families receive safe and unimpeded access to life-saving services.
Women and girls at greater risk as scant services come under threat
Women and girls face increasing risks amid growing humanitarian crises. According to The New Humanitaria, documented cases of sexual violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo more than doubled in the first half of 2024, while in Haiti, some clinics reported receiving up to 40 rape survivors per day. Despite these alarming trends, services for survivors of gender-based violence (GBV) are often the first to be cut due to funding constraints. According to UNWomen the situation in Sudan is particularly dire for women and girls:
“An estimated 6.9 million people are currently at risk of gender-based violence. Documented cases of mass and systemic rape highlight the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war, leaving survivors in dire need of medical, psychological, and social support. Since December 2023, the number of survivors of gender-based violence, including conflict-related sexual violence, seeking services increased by 288 per cent, illustrating the scope of the crisis. Evidence shows that women and girls from ethnic minority groups are being deliberately targeted.”
From a child protection perspective, girls’ reduced access to education and protection services increases their vulnerability to exploitation, early marriage, and trafficking. Gender-responsive child protection systems are essential to mitigate these risks, ensuring that GBV services include comprehensive support for women and children in affected families. In Afghanistan, where restrictions on women’s rights are extreme, girls’ access to education has been severely curtailed, limiting their future opportunities and exposing them to long-term harm.
To strengthen gender-responsive child protection services, policymakers and donors must align funding commitments with global initiatives such as Together for Girls, WeProtect Global Alliance, and Safe Online, amongst others, and promote and fund gender-tranformative approaches. Investments should support integrated service models that provide safe spaces, healthcare, education, and legal support for women and children affected by gender-based violence. Multi-donor trust funds can pool resources for sustainable funding, while the UNSDCF should prioritise prioritise the coordination between child protection and GBV sectors in country plans. Regional bodies must set gender-sensitive service standards, and child participation—especially girls' voices—should inform programme design and advocacy for long-term policy solutions.
Needs soar in Latin America as gang violence and organised crime spiral
Latin America has seen a surge in gang violence, fuelled by record-high cocaine production and the global expansion of transnational organised crime. Millions of people have been displaced or forced to migrate to avoid recruitment by gangs, extortion, and violence. In countries like Haiti and Mexico, humanitarian operations have been suspended due to cartel-related violence and attacks on aid workers.
Although Latin America is the focus of this issue, Lebanon is experiencing similar child protection concerns due to its economic collapse, rising poverty and conflict. High levels of children are being forced into child labour, bonded labour, and living on the streets, raising fears of a potential 'lost generation.' The interconnected risks of violence, exploitation, and disrupted education faced by children in both Latin America and Lebanon highlight the need for comprehensive, region-specific responses to prevent long-term impacts on vulnerable youth.
From a child protection perspective, children in gang-controlled areas face immense risks, including forced recruitment, sexual exploitation, and exposure to violence. School closures due to violence deprive children of safe spaces and access to education, increasing the likelihood of their involvement in illegal activities.
To address the risks children face in gang-controlled or impoverished areas, policymakers, donors, and regional bodies must scale up community-based child protection programmes by funding alternative education, safe shelters, and youth livelihood initiatives. This requires integrating child protection into social protection, urban safety, and education systems, supported by multi-donor trust funds for long-term impact. In countries like Lebanon, where economic collapse has forced many children into exploitative labour and street work, the UN should strengthen child protection in development plans and implement early warning systems to monitor violations. Regional alliances must establish cross-border child protection protocols, while local organisations should be empowered to monitor progress and advocate for accountability.
The end of asylum
The right to seek asylum is under unprecedented threat, with countries in the Global North enacting increasingly restrictive migration policies. Lebanon is home to more than one million registered Syrian refugees and faces mounting pressure as asylum policies in the Global North harden. This has increased dependency on already overstretched humanitarian services in Lebanon, leaving refugee children vulnerable to displacement, exploitation, and limited access to education.The US and many European nations have implemented measures that limit legal pathways for asylum seekers, forcing many to take dangerous routes.
From a child protection perspective, children in migration face grave risks, including trafficking, detention, and separation from their families. In 2024, several incidents at the US-Mexico border highlighted the dangers faced by unaccompanied children, who often endure inhumane conditions in detention centres. Advocating for child-friendly asylum procedures, such as family reunification and prohibitions on family-seperation and child detention, is vital. Access to education and healthcare must also be guaranteed for refugee children to ensure their basic rights are upheld.
Governments must uphold international standards prohibiting child detention and prioritise family reunification by strengthening cross-border coordination. Donors should support pooled funding mechanisms for child-friendly asylum services, ensuring refugee children’s access to education, healthcare, and protection. NGOs and civil society actors should be supported to monitor and hold governments accountable for their commitments to child protection, ensuring that violations are reported and addressed transparently.
Conclusion
The trends highlighted in The New Humanitarian's report represent significant challenges for child protection in 2025. From economic austerity and protracted conflicts to the erosion of asylum rights, children face increasing vulnerabilities. To address these, governments, humanitarian organisations, and international bodies must prioritise the protection of children in policy, programming, and advocacy. By doing so, we can mitigate the worst effects of these crises and uphold the fundamental rights of every child, even in the most challenging circumstances.
As the global humanitarian landscape evolves, coordinated action at all levels—local, regional, and global—is needed to uphold children’s rights and protect the next generation from the worst impacts of these crises.
Acknowledgement
I utilised OpenAI’s ChatGPT to assist in organising the research and drafting portions of this blog post. Any errors or omissions are entirely my responsibility.
